Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production

This chapter synthesizes evidence on how anthropogenic climate change is reshaping global crop production. Meeting projected food demand by 2050 is estimated to require a doubling of output, even as climate pressures intensify. Weather, especially temperature and rainfall, already accounts for up to half of yield variability. Warming in major breadbaskets already exceeds historical inter-annual ranges. Water stress is increasing as droughts become more frequent, intense, and abrupt in onset, while rising atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) further suppresses stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. Shifts toward more extreme rainfall and temperature events compound risks through flooding, hail, frost loss and heat damage at critical stages. The overall trajectory is declining productivity and greater volatility, with significant implications for food security. Building resilience will demand coordinated adaptation, including stress-tolerant germplasm and diversified systems, improved water management and soil health, climate-smart agronomy and early-warning systems, and broader, transformative changes across food systems.