Famine risk under climate change: assessing the impact on local food production and the potential role of adaptation strategies.

While climate change will impact all aspects of the food system, it is not clear how it will influence the risk of famine: situations of extreme starvation. Drawing on theory for how and why famines occur, we analyze the ways that changes in extreme weather might alter local agricultural yields. We present CMIP6 projections of the change in risk for specific climate changes that are relevant to agriculture: heat, frost, precipitation, and dry spells. Then, we analyze crop model projections that estimate crop yields under future climate projections. In crop models run with a future scenario in which people plant the same crops as today, we find that calorie production from attainable crop yields is projected to decrease in much of Central America, Eastern South America, much of Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, South Asia, parts of Southeast and East Asia, and Australia. However, under a scenario in which people are allowed to switch crops, we find that there is global potential for adaptation to climate change, with certain crops in every region that are projected to increase attainable yield under climate change. There are also major yield gaps that could be closed with adaptation investments. Based on the theory and analysis, we conclude that climate change may act as a contributing, rather than determinative, factor to famine-related risk. Given that adaptation will ultimately influence whether climate change will increase the probability of famine, we recommend investments in adaptation, especially in conflict-affected regions.