Climate Change Mitigation Intensity and Mitigation Outcomes in the Crop Production Sector: Moderating Role of Experience and Education in Nigeria

Climate-smart agriculture has gained attention; most studies focus on adoption rather than the intensity of mitigation practices and how this translates into measurable outcomes. This study therefore examined the effect of climate change mitigation intensity on sustainability, productivity, and environmental outcomes, as well as the moderating role of farmers’ experience and education. Data were collected from 331 crop farmers and analyzed using a composite mitigation intensity index derived from the number, frequency, scale, and duration of practices. Descriptive results show that 65.1% of farmers adopted 5–8 practices, with a mean intensity score of 5.3, while 66.7% operated within a moderate mitigation category. Regression results indicate that mitigation intensity significantly improves sustainability (β = 0.332, p < 0.01) and productivity (β = 1.157, p < 0.01), while also influencing environmental outcomes (β = 0.395, p < 0.01). The models explain a substantial proportion of variation, with R² values of 0.689, 0.527, and 0.801 for sustainability, productivity, and environmental outcomes, respectively. Household size (β = 0.127, p < 0.01) and extension access (β = 0.218, p < 0.05) significantly enhanced productivity, whereas credit access increases emission pressure (β = 0.055, p < 0.01). Moderation results showed that experience improves sustainability (β = 0.002, p < 0.05) but reduces marginal productivity gains (β = -0.018, p < 0.01), while education is not significant. The study concludes that although ATASP-1 has achieved widespread and sustained adoption, improved targeting of extension services and climate-smart financing is required to enhance mitigation intensity and optimize outcomes.