Estimation of mangrove requirements for the absorption and storage of anthropogenic carbon emissions in the coastal area of Gresik Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia

Because they are able to absorb and store atmospheric carbon, mangrove ecosystems help combat climate change. Nevertheless, few studies combining spatial analysis of mangrove carbon stock estimation with estimation of the mangrove area required to offset anthropogenic emissions at the subdistrict level have been conducted in rapidly developing coastal regions. This research aimed to estimate the mangrove area needed to offset anthropogenic carbon emissions in the coastal areas of Gresik Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia. Transects and 10 × 10 m plots were used for field surveys conducted in seven coastal subdistricts. DBH measurements of mangroves were fitted to species-specific allometric equations to determine biomass and carbon stocks. A 2023 Landsat image was used to map mangrove distribution with the help of geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were estimated based on available data for transport, livestock and poultry, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption, and electricity. The results showed that Gresik Subdistrict had the highest total emissions, at 6,795.91 t CO 2 -eq yr -1 , and Ujungpangkah Subdistrict had the highest carbon stock value, at 264,803.16 t C. Spatial analysis showed that Kebomas, Panceng, and Gresik subdistricts needed additional mangrove areas of 52.07 ha, 50.21 ha, and 57.10 ha, respectively, to neutralize emissions under their current emission conditions. These results highlight the need for mangrove restoration as a crucial element of effective regional climate change mitigation and, thus, sustainable coastal management.