An Adaptive Mangrove Governance Model Integrating Sasi, Carbon Economic Valuation, and Ecological Fiscal Transfer for Mangrove Management in Maluku, Indonesia: Evidence from East Seram Regency.

Mangrove ecosystems play a critical role in climate change mitigation through blue carbon storage while supporting coastal resilience and community livelihoods. This study developed an adaptive mangrove governance model integrating the Sasi customary system, Carbon Economic Value (CEV), and Ecological Fiscal Transfer (EFT) within a Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework in East Seram Regency, Indonesia. A mixed-methods approach integrated biophysical, socio-institutional, carbon valuation, and DPSIR analyses. Annualized carbon-stock change was estimated from multi-temporal ecosystem carbon stocks and converted to CO₂ equivalents for carbon valuation. Mangroves retained substantial carbon stocks despite declining extent, with an estimated annualized carbon-stock change of 10,496.29 Mg CO₂e year⁻¹ (2.98 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) and a potential CEV of IDR 839.7 million-1.68 billion year⁻¹ under voluntary carbon market prices. Socio-institutional analysis showed that 91.7% of respondents supported integrating Sasi into mangrove governance. DPSIR analysis identified land-use change, resource utilization, and coastal development as important pressures associated with mangrove change, while restoration, marine protected areas, community participation, and performance-based fiscal incentives were identified as potential management responses. The proposed model integrates customary institutions, blue carbon valuation, and fiscal incentives to support climate mitigation, community participation, and sustainable mangrove management, providing an evidence-based framework for Indonesia's NDCs and potentially other tropical coastal regions with similar social-ecological conditions.