Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Human Settlement Resilience in Resource-Based Cities of Northern China

Resource-based cities, constrained by resource dependence and economic restructuring, exhibit high sensitivity and vulnerability when responding to external shocks. Enhancing human settlement resilience can strengthen the capacity of urban systems to withstand external pressures, maintain stability, and promote the well-being of residents and sustainable urban development. However, the differentiation patterns and obstacle factor identification across urban types at different development stages still require further investigation. This study constructs an evaluation index system based on five subsystems: natural, human, living, social, and support systems. The evolution of the human settlement resilience of resource-based cities in Northern China from 2012 to 2022 was analyzed using the entropy method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), kernel density estimation, and the obstacle degree model. We further compare resilience differentiation characteristics of four types of cities, growing, mature, declining, and regenerating, while conducting a scientific diagnosis of the factors that hinder resilience enhancement. The results show that: (1) Human settlement resilience in resource-based cities exhibits phased characteristics. Regenerating cities demonstrate the highest level of resilience, followed by growing, mature, and declining cities. All city types show an upward trend in human settlement resilience across different stages, with an overall increase of 25%, although their development trends showed noticeable differentiation. Regenerating cities experienced relatively rapid improvement, accompanied by a narrowing gap in inter-city disparities, while declining cities also demonstrated an overall upward development trend. Mature cities exhibited relatively gradual improvements in resilience, while growth-type cities exhibited differences in their rates of increase. (2) At the criterion level, social resilience is the core obstacle for growing, mature, and regenerating cities, while in declining cities, the core obstacle shifts from social to living resilience. The obstacle degree of social resilience was nearly above 30% for all four city types in both 2012 and 2017, and remained above 20% in 2022. At the indicator level, water resource abundance, urbanization level, and economic development level are the major barriers to resilience improvement, with dominant factors differing significantly among city types. The study results provide insights for the development of resource-based cities in China and offer references for similar cities in industrialized countries.