Predicting the Potential Distribution of Plantago asiatica L. in Jiangxi Province Under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model.

Plantago asiatica L. is an important medicinal and edible plant in China, whose wild resources have declined sharply due to overharvesting. Accurately assessing its potential suitable habitats and identifying the dominant environmental factors are of great scientific significance for germplasm conservation. In this study, we focused on Jiangxi Province and, based on 79 field occurrence records and 29 environmental variables, employed a MaxEnt model optimized using the kuenm package (version 1.1.9) (AUC = 0.806) to simulate the potential distribution of this species under current and three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicated that static non-climatic factors at the regional scale-specifically, soil clay content (contribution rate: 56.7%)-were the dominant force determining the distribution of Plantago asiatica, with an influence far exceeding that of climatic and topographic factors. Under all future SSP scenarios, its distribution range exhibited notable spatiotemporal conservatism, and the centroid showed no long-distance migration. This study provides a scientific reference for optimizing the conservation framework of Plantago asiatica germplasm resources, identifying priority cultivation areas, and formulating regional adaptive management strategies.