The maximum entropy model optimized with the kuenm package predicts the potential habitat distribution of Aconitum pendulum in China under climate change

Introduction Aconitum pendulum is a rare medicinal plant endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and a key indicator species for alpine ecosystems. It possesses both medicinal and ecological value. However, its wild populations are on the verge of decline due to overharvesting and low reproductive capacity, and the species is highly sensitive to climate change. Methods In this research, the kuenm package was employed to optimize the maximum entropy model, so as to predict the distribution of A. pendulum in China under both current and future climate scenarios. From a total of 103 environmental variables, 11 key factors influencing the distribution of A. pendulum were selected through correlation analysis and variable contribution rate evaluation. Based on 188 valid distribution sites of A. pendulum , an analysis was conducted on its potential habitat distribution in China under current and future climatic conditions. Results The results demonstrate that under the current climate, the total area of suitable habitats for A. pendulum is 2.08×10 6 km 2 , accounting for 21.56% of China’s land area, and these habitats are mainly distributed in the southwest, northwest, and central regions of the country. Altitude, september solar radiation, and temperature seasonality were identified as the main factors affecting the distribution of A. pendulum . Under future climate change scenarios, the overall area of suitable habitats for A. pendulum exhibits a decreasing trend. Under the low-emission scenario, the area of unsuitable areas shows slight fluctuations, while the low-, medium-, and high-suitable distribution areas within the suitable zones remain balanced. Under the high-emission scenario, the edge areas of unsuitable areas shrink rapidly, whereas the high-suitable areas expand slightly. The centroid migration of the suitable habitats did not deviate from the core region located on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, indicating that A. pendulum still has adaptive potential under climate change. Discussion This study highlights the significant impacts of altitude, September solar radiation, and temperature seasonality on the distribution of A. pendulum , and provides a scientific basis for the protection, planting planning, and sustainable development of A. pendulum .