Households under pressure: a systems framework for modeling the "watch" famine archetype.

Famines are complex systems that change over time, and in which outcomes differ by household situation and livelihood. The "watch" famine system archetype occurs when populations engage in coping strategies to deal with a hunger gap, such as between agricultural harvests, which can interfere with future food production and mask the existence of a crisis to outside observers. I present a framework for modeling household responses to hunger. I used a partial prototype model for agrarian, horticultural, or foraging livelihoods to simulate the role of rationing and foraging as coping responses to insufficient food. Although not all dynamics were included, simulations suggested that while coping mechanisms can improve outcomes, rationing may also produce negative outcomes, due to the increased chance of death with lower energy reserves. I discuss next steps for a more complete framework, generalization to other famine systems, and implications for monitoring and responding to famine systems.