Evidence on the Effects of US State-Level Carrying Restrictions, 2017-2024: Guns, Protests, and Public Safety.

Objectives. To assess whether state laws prohibiting firearm carrying at protests are associated with reduced shootings at protests. Methods. We analyzed more than 2000 large protests (crowds ≥ 1000) across 39 US states with permissive concealed carry laws from 2017 to 2024 using data from the Crowd Counting Consortium and the Gun Violence Archive. Using a difference-in-differences design, we compared shooting counts near protest sites on protest versus nonprotest days in states with and without protest-specific carrying restrictions. Results. Shootings occurred at 1.8% of protests. In the primary models, the estimated effect of firearm restrictions could not be clearly distinguished from the null (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.016, 0.037). Excluding 1 outlier protest site in Chicago, Illinois, firearm restrictions were associated with an estimated 0.014 fewer shootings per protest (95% CI = -0.025, -0.003), roughly 1 fewer shooting per 72 protests. Other model specifications generally suggested lower risk of shootings in states with restrictive carrying policies, with varying levels of precision. Conclusions. This study provides some modest evidence suggesting targeted restrictions on firearm carrying at protests may reduce the likelihood of shootings. Findings contribute to ongoing debates over firearm restrictions in "sensitive places." (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 20, 2026:e1-e7. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2026.308616).