Differential Effects of US State Firearm Policies on Black and Non-Black Firearm Homicide and Suicide, 1981‒2022.

Objectives. To estimate the effects of 7 state firearm policies on yearly rates of firearm mortality (homicide and suicide) among racial demographic groups. Methods. We studied yearly firearm homicide and suicide counts by race for all US states from 1981 to 2022 via de-biased, autoregressive, Bayesian negative binomial models. Results. Permissive policies were associated with 1.97 more homicides (86% posterior probability of increased mortality; 80% credible interval [CrI] = -0.31, 4.38) and 0.32 more suicides (93% probability of increase; 80% CrI = 0.04, 0.58) per 100 000 Black population. Restrictive policies were associated with 0.51 fewer Black suicides per 100 000 (> 99% probability of decrease; 80% CrI = -0.71, -0.31). Policies had similar rate-ratio effects in both groups, but they shifted absolute homicide risk more for Black (and suicide more for non-Black) populations because of differing absolute rates: per 100 000, permissive laws were associated with 1.81 more Black homicides than non-Black (85% probability higher), and restrictive laws with reductions of 0.70 fewer Black suicides than non-Black (> 99% probability smaller). Conclusions. Harms and benefits of firearm policies on firearm homicide have accrued more to Black populations than to non-Black ones, with the opposite true for firearm suicide. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 13, 2026:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2026.308523).