Yaşar Aldırmaz
The Straits have served on a continuous basis between the Ottoman Empire and Republic periods as strategic factor in the balance of power within the international system. The system of the straits, established as a permanent legal entity under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, has formed a backdrop for Turkey’s sovereignty and foreign policy ever since. Yet the reorganisation by and through the change from Cold War to post-Cold War era has also altered the nature of this regime. This article develops and presents an analytical framework, “Balancing Autonomy”, developed by the author, which serves as an abstract deductive model by which to interpret the way middle powers can navigate systemic pressures through regime-based structuring while acting autonomously. Drawing on the tradition of classical, structural and neoclassical realism, this model captures the extent to which Turkey can accommodate systemic compulsions while coping with national decision-making autonomy. Applying a historical-comparative qualitative analysis based on archival and official sources, the article discusses three periods: 1991-2003, 2004-2013, and 2014-2024. The results show that the model functions through three major mechanisms: constraint through rule-based practices, legitimacy based on a cautious legal-rational discourse, and mediation through simultaneous diplomatic engagement. The study contends that Turkey successfully employed its natural capability and historical diplomatic tradition to ensure regional stability as well as national independence by treating the Montreux regime as a pragmatic mechanism. In this vein, the model on “Balancing Autonomy” provides a distinct theoretical framework to understand the presence strategies of middle powers in a multipolar system.