Digitalisation and Economic Performance: The Impact of ICT on Tourism, Exports and Investments

This study examines the long- and short-term effects of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) investments on tourism, export, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in 12 developing economies during the period 1995-2020. To account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and serial correlation in the panel data, the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999) was employed. Contrary to the existing literature, empirical findings indicate that ICT expenditures have statistically significant negative long-term relationships with all three economic variables: exports (coefficient = -1,62, p = 0,04), tourism (coefficient = -0,56, p = 0,00), and FDI (coefficient = -1,55, p = 0,00). Notably, while the error-correction terms for exports and tourism indicate stable convergence to equilibrium (-0,78 and -0,77, respectively), the FDI model yields an error-correction coefficient of -1,83, suggesting an oscillatory, potentially unstable adjustment process. The results suggest that ICT investments may negatively affect these key indicators in the long term in the context examined, and emphasise the importance of complementary policies to unlock their positive potential.