Investigating the Effects of Economic Sanctions on Food Production in Target Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2022)

Abstract This study examines the impact of economic sanctions on food production in SSA, measured by the Food Production Index (FPI). Using an unbalanced panel of SSA countries over the period 1990–2022, we employ a fixed-effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to address cross-sectional dependence, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. The results reveal that both trade and financial sanctions exert negative and statistically significant effects on food production, with FPI declining by up to 8.77 % under trade and financial sanctions. Further, a two-stage mediation analysis identifies GDP per capita, inflation, and exchange rate volatility as key transmission channels through which sanctions undermine food production. These findings highlight the need for adaptive and resilient policy interventions to protect domestic food systems in sanctioned economies and to advance progress toward global food security goals.