Dynamic linkages between agricultural trade and food security in Somalia: evidence from a vector error correction model (VECM)

This study examines the relationship between agricultural exports, agricultural imports, and food availability in Somalia using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics. Using annual data from 1990 to 2021, food availability is proxied by the Food Production Index (FPI), while agricultural trade and exchange rate dynamics are incorporated as key explanatory variables. The results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. In the long run, agricultural exports exert a negative effect on food availability, where a 1% increase in exports reduces food availability by approximately 0.176%, suggesting a diversion of domestic food resources toward external markets. In contrast, agricultural imports have a positive impact, with a 1% increase improving food availability by about 0.391%, reflecting Somalia’s dependence on imports to meet domestic food demand. The exchange rate shows a negative and substantial effect, as a 1% depreciation reduces food availability by approximately 0.844%, highlighting the adverse impact of rising import costs. In the short run, agricultural exports and exchange rate changes positively influence food availability, while imports show no significant short-run effect. These findings underscore the importance of balancing export promotion with domestic food needs and maintaining exchange rate stability to improve production-based food outcomes in Somalia. The results should be interpreted within the availability dimension of food security and do not fully capture other dimensions such as access, utilization, or stability.