Beyond 2050: From deployment to renewal of the global solar and wind energy system

Energy transition depends on large-scale photovoltaic (PV) and wind power deployment. While 2050 targets suggest a transition endpoint, sustaining these systems beyond mid-century requires continuous renewal, marking a fundamental shift in industrial dynamics. This study examines the transition from deployment to renewal, using a two-phase growth model: an exponential expansion followed by capacity stabilization. By integrating this pattern with a technology lifespan distribution, we estimate the annual production required for both expansion and maintenance. Our findings highlight two key factors influencing production dynamics: deployment speed and lifespan. When deployment occurs faster than the average lifespan, production overshoots and exhibits damped oscillations due to successive replacement cycles. Conversely, gradual deployment leads to a smooth increase before stabilizing at the renewal rate. Given current scenarios, the PV industry is likely to experience significant oscillations–ranging from 15% to 60% of global production–while wind power follows a monotonic growth trajectory. These oscillations, driven by ambitious energy targets, may result in cycles of overproduction and underproduction, affecting industrial stability. Beyond solar and wind, we underscore a broader challenge in the energy transition: shifting from infrastructure expansion to long-term maintenance. This challenge is crucial for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of renewable energy systems beyond 2050.