Differences in global multi-regional photovoltaic expansion from 1980 to 2050: A focus on demand, recycling, and local-supply exposure for critical minerals.

Net-zero targets are driving rapid global photovoltaic (PV) expansion, shifting the energy transition from an energy challenge to a mineral-demand challenge. Using a dynamic material flow model, this study assesses the critical mineral (CM) demand and regional local-supply exposure associated with PV modules, supporting power systems, and storage across nine global regions during 1980-2050 under three climate scenarios. Results show that: (1) by 2050, cumulative global PV capacity reaches ∼16,500-21,000 GW, representing a ∼36.67-46.67-fold expansion, while cumulative CM demand totals 169.27-222.02 Mt; (2) cumulative retirements reach ∼2700-3350 GW by 2050, whereas cumulative recycled CM supply remains limited to 9.86-23.20 Mt, with ∼88% of retirement flows occurring after 2040; (3) retirement flows are highly concentrated in China, but retirement volumes in Africa, Central and South America, and the Middle East already exceed those in Europe and North America; and (4) niche CMs such as Ga, In, Se, Te, and Cd show high local production exposure or reserve pressure in nearly every region, and even highly efficient recycling in the late 2040s does little to materially relieve deployment demand during the earlier and middle phases of the transition. These findings provide new insights into CM demand, retirement dynamics, and regional local-supply exposure in global multi-regional PV expansion.