Reported HIV/AIDS Case Rates and COVID-Era Surveillance Disruption in Indonesia, 2010-2024: A National Time-Series Study With 2030 Scenario Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Routine HIV/AIDS surveillance data are central to programme monitoring in low- and middle-income settings, but reported diagnoses are shaped by testing access, service continuity and reporting completeness. Indonesia's annual reports enable reproducible analysis of programme trends. OBJECTIVES: To describe national reported HIV and AIDS case rates in Indonesia during 2010-2024, quantify COVID-era deviations from pre-pandemic reporting trends and explore transparent 2030 scenarios for reported surveillance indicators. METHODS: We analysed 15 annual observations (2010-2024) from manually verified Indonesian Ministry of Health reports (Profil Kesehatan Indonesia and national HIV/AIDS and STI programme reports) and official population tables. Reported HIV and AIDS counts were converted to rates per 100,000 population. Ordinary least-squares regression summarised slopes for pre-COVID (2010-2019), COVID disruption (2020-2021) and post-COVID/rebound (2022-2024) periods. A linear counterfactual estimated 2020-2021 reporting deficits, and deterministic scenarios projected reported indicators from the 2024 baseline to 2030. RESULTS: Reported HIV cases increased from 21,591 in 2010 to 63,707 in 2024, and the HIV case rate increased from 9.09 to 22.36 per 100,000 population. Reported AIDS cases increased from 7437 to 21,536, and the AIDS case rate increased from 3.13 to 7.56 per 100,000 population. The COVID counterfactual estimated HIV reporting deficits of 24.0% in 2020 and 37.8% in 2021; corresponding AIDS reporting deficits were 9.0% and 39.3%. Scenario endpoints ranged from 33,857 to 95,963 reported HIV cases and from 11,445 to 56,441 reported AIDS cases. CONCLUSIONS: Indonesia's reported HIV/AIDS case rates changed substantially during 2010-2024, with COVID-era surveillance disruption followed by post-pandemic rebound. The findings provide a reproducible, denominator-adjusted evidence base for strengthening HIV programme monitoring and 2030 planning in Indonesia and comparable health-system settings.