Modelling the ‘S curve’: transition dynamics in EV adoption

Abstract Electric vehicles (EVs) offer significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. This study focuses on understanding and modelling the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) to EVs, addressing the dynamics that drive this shift. Using a nonlinear model of opinion dynamics, we investigate the influence of effective price ratios between EVs and ICEs, EV model availability, and public charging stations on adoption rates. Historical data from Norway, a mature EV market, is utilized to validate the model and analyze the impact of policy measures, such as subsidies, on accelerating adoption. According to our model, affordability alone does not drive the transition. Factors like EV model availability and consumer trust in battery technology play crucial roles, as evidenced by the surge in hybrid vehicle adoption during the transition phase. This reflects hesitancy toward fully committing to EVs even when the technology is sufficiently mature. The model emphasizes the interplay of consumer opinion and market behaviour, highlighting the importance of policies that promote EV model availability and enhance battery reliability/increase trust in new technologies, alongside financial incentives. While the focus of this study was EV adoption, the modelling approach is relevant for the adoption of other low-carbon consumer technologies such as heat pumps. This research provides critical insights into the complexity of EV adoption and the multifaceted strategies needed to support the shift toward sustainable transportation systems. While different modelling approaches are necessary to model technology adoption, nonlinear models are particularly well-suited to capture the feedbacks and emergent dynamics that characterize EV adoption.