(Un)desirable turbulence in the pathways of vocational graduates in Russia: a sequence analysis

This study explores the early career trajectories of vocational education graduates, challenging traditional views that portray vocational pathways as inherently problematic. Employing sequence analysis and life course theory, we investigate the complexities of vocational trajectories, recognising that differentiation can be both advantageous and disadvantageous. Our research uses longitudinal data from a Russian cohort study to explore how vocational graduates navigate transitions in education and employment. We identify specific transitions that characterise advantageous turbulent trajectories. Favourable turbulence is driven by sequences that integrate vocational and often higher education with substantial full‑time work and study–work combinations, whereas harmful turbulence reflects recurrent moves into inactivity, unemployment, and precarious part‑time employment. This study contributes to the understanding of vocational life courses, emphasising the heterogeneity within this group and their educational and career pathways. The research offers insights into the factors that enable vocational graduates to construct meaningful careers, highlighting the need to move beyond traditional measures of career success and embrace the complexities of modern life courses. It also opens a discussion on conceptual and methodological issues related to differentiated vocational pathways, providing a foundation for further comparative research across diverse VET systems and labour markets.