From socio-psychological beliefs to urban policy: modelling cycling intention among non-users in Mexico City using SEM-MIMIC and COM-B approaches

This research examines the determinants of cycling adoption intention among 983 non-bicycle users in Mexico City. We applied the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) within an SEM-MIMIC framework, and using Bayesian informative hypothesis testing, we discovered key socio-psychological and contextual drivers. The results show that behavioural and normative beliefs are significant positive predictors, while being female and having long travel times are deterrents—with travel time proving to be the stronger negative influence. To translate the results into policy, we mapped the results were onto the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, and Behaviour (COM B) framework. This analysis shows that increasing adoption requires a multi-pronged approach: urban cycling courses to enhance psychological capability and motivation, particularly for women, and financial incentives for e-bikes to improve physical opportunity by overcoming the spatial barriers of travel time.