Environmental and social influences on cycling adoption: A socio-ecological mode choice analysis in Greater Melbourne

Cycling is widely recognised as a sustainable and health-enhancing mode of transport; however, its adoption remains low in many urban areas due to safety concerns and infrastructure limitations. This study considers the multiple levels of influence on individual behaviour. Adopting a social ecological framework, it examines how traffic stress, social norms, and family influences shape cycling uptake in Greater Melbourne. It focuses on the impact of lowering residential speed limits to 30 km/h and expanding low-stress cycling networks. The study uses the Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity, a household travel survey data and a multinomial logit model to evaluate how reducing the Level of Traffic Stress (LTS), combined with social and family reinforcement, influences mode choice behaviour. The results indicate that speed reductions significantly lower the proportion of high-LTS road segments from 45% to 30%, leading to a 49.6% increase in cycling adoption in the model with LTS alone and from 27.85% to 88.37% in models incorporating social and family influences. The findings highlight that infrastructure improvements alone are insufficient; family and social support are crucial in reinforcing cycling behaviour and mitigating infrastructure constraints. These insights highlight the need for an integrated ecological approach combining infrastructure, behavioural strategies, and policy interventions to promote cycling.