Epidemiology of Parkinson’s disease – Global burden of disease research from 1990 to 2021 and future trend predictions

• Authoritative data sources: The data is sourced from the GBD 2021 database, covering epidemiological data of 371 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021. It provides a comprehensive and standardized evidence–based foundation for the research, ensuring that the research results are widely representative and highly reliable. • Comprehensive analysis dimensions: Analyses are conducted from global, regional, and national levels, and stratified by gender, age, and the Socio–demographic Index (SDI). Indicators such as the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability–Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of Parkinson’s disease are analyzed to comprehensively reveal the epidemiological characteristics and burden differences of the disease. • Scientific prediction models: The ARIMA and ES models are used to predict the global burden of Parkinson’s disease over the next 30 years. This enhances the validity and reliability of the predictions and provides a scientific basis for formulating forward–looking prevention and control strategies. • Practical significance of the conclusions: The research results provide an evidence–based framework for the formulation of precise prevention strategies and the optimal allocation of medical resources. This helps to improve the prevention and control effectiveness of Parkinson’s disease and the quality of life of patients, and has important practical significance in public health. Parkinson’s disease (PD), a common neurodegenerative disorder, severely affects patients’ quality of life. This study aims to update the assessment of PD’s prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability–adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Analyses were conducted at Socio-demographic Index (SDI), global, regional, and national levels, stratified by gender and age. PD data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database was extracted. Trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of PD were assessed, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated during the study period. Analyses were done by gender, age, GBD region, and SDI quintiles, using R statistical software for analyses and mapping. In 2021, the global burden of PD remained substantial. The number of prevalent PD cases grew from 3,148,394.56 in 1990 to 11,767,271.97 in 2021 (a 2.74-fold increase). Incident cases rose from 417,134.69 to 1,335,142.12 (a 2.20-fold increase). Males exhibited higher prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates than females across almost all age groups. High-SDI regions had higher ASPR, ASIR, and ASDR values than low-SDI regions. Countries and regions in Asia, particularly China and Japan, exhibited among the highest ASPR and ASIR globally. Projections indicate global ASPR and ASIR will continue to rise substantially over the next three decades (to 2050), with males exhibiting a faster rate of increase than females, while the ASMR is predicted to remain essentially stable. This study systematically delineates the epidemiological landscape, temporal trends, and burden profiles of Parkinson’s disease across global, regional, gender-stratified, and age-specific populations, providing an evidence-based framework to guide precision prevention strategies and optimize healthcare resource prioritization.