Climate change will increase high-temperature risks, degradation, and costs of rooftop photovoltaics globally

Solar photovoltaic (PV) panels have reduced performance, reliability, and lifespans at high operational temperatures. We show that climate change will increase high-temperature risks (HTRs) and the resulting PV degradation and costs for rooftop PVs (RPVs) globally. We combine bias-corrected outputs from global climate models with a bottom-up PV physical-chemical Arrhenius degradation and economic model. When mounted on tilted roofs, global RPV capacity exposure to HTR increases by 29% and 97% at 2°C to 4°C global warming relative to the historical period, respectively. Warming-induced increases in HTRs accelerate PV aging and degradation, increasing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). At 2.5°C of warming, the mean (5th–95th percentile) LCOE increase is 4.8% (0.6%–20.0%) across cities exposed to HTRs globally. These changes will exacerbate regional inequities in RPV reliability and cost. Via sensitivity analysis, we find qualitatively similar insights from climate change for alternative PV technologies and for PVs mounted on flat roofs. Standards for PV HTRs should be updated to reflect a changing climate.