Shenglai Zhu, Nan Xiang, Feng Xu
The rapid expansion of China's photovoltaic grid-connected capacity (PV-GCC) plays a pivotal role in energy transition and carbon emission reduction. Yet regional disparities in policy, resources, and economics make its development uneven. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of PV-GCC in China from 2014 to 2023 and the underlying factors. A PV development capability (PV-DC) assessment framework is established, covering policy planning, resource endowment, power infrastructure, economic support, and market outlook dimensions, along with 22 indicators. A hybrid weighting model, combining the CRITIC (CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation), entropy weight, and game theory methods, is applied with the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) approach to quantify PV-DC. This enables an examination of the coupling and mismatch between PV-GCC and PV-DC across China's provinces. Key findings include: (1) China's PV-GCC underwent two distinct phases of rapid expansion (compound annual growth rate: 41.19%), transforming from policy-driven to technology-driven growth, forming high-capacity clusters in the east and northwest. (2) Centralized PV capacity in China is concentrated in resource-rich regions, whereas distributed PV shows a spatial gradient, declining from the economically advanced eastern coast toward inland regions. (3) Centralized PV installation potential is the most influential factor (weight = 0.178), with higher PV-DC values concentrated along the China's eastern coast and in the northwest. (4) In most Chinese provinces, PV-DC and PV-GCC exhibit strong coupling, although mismatches persist between the two (high PV-DC-low PV-GCC and low PV-DC-high PV-GCC) in parts of central and western provinces. The study underscores the importance of regionally tailored strategies and cross-regional coordination to enable sustainable PV deployment.