Steering sustainability transitions with reflexivity: policy strategies for handling emergent lock-ins and path dependencies

In this paper, we explore and draw attention to overcoming the challenge of emergent lock-in through policy strategies, among the other challenges associated with the acceleration of transitions. To navigate the ongoing sustainability transition, policy-making must reflect on the unintended developments and side-effects emerging in transitions, notably emergent lock-ins. We argue that this type of lock-in can drive developments that are unsustainable or not sufficiently sustainable, thereby slowing down transition processes, and second, undermining the achievement of sustainability targets, namely net-zero. Based on a narrative literature review, we discuss how emergent lock-ins have not played a central role in the literature. Furthermore, we present six strategies that deliver flexibility, ultimately reducing the risk of emergent lock-ins. Reflecting on how to anticipate and prevent these lock-ins represents a necessary step towards being able to adjust to future developments and to the uncertainty affecting transitions. In conclusion, this contribution to research is a first attempt to outline emergent lock-ins as a major challenge for the acceleration of transitions and to shed some light on the strategies to handle this challenge.