Unpacking lock-ins in transition pathways: Lessons from the Dutch circular plastic packaging mission

Societal mission-oriented policies are shaped by the socio-technical systems in which they are embedded, yet their openness to multiple transition pathways, particularly when a dominant one exists, is underexplored. This study addresses this gap through a qualitative case study of the circular plastic packaging mission in the Netherlands. We analyse the interaction between the mission and socio-technical system dynamics across three circular transition pathways: recycling (the locked-in pathway), reuse and refuse (emerging pathways in the circular transition). Our findings identify three types of lock-ins (infrastructure and technology, institutional, and behavioural) that strongly favour recycling as a dominant pathway in the circular transition, persisting also after the mission's implementation. We contribute to the transitions literature by showing that mission policies can gradually reshape institutions and reduce lock-in. However, it also underscores the necessity of active mission governance to promote and activate less dominant pathways that align with societal goals.