Assessing risks and opportunities for offshore wind energy under evolving tropical cyclone hazards

This study presents a simulation-based framework for assessing offshore wind turbine failure risks and potential benefits from conceivable increased power generation during tropical cyclones. Using a future climate model based on projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 scenario (SSP3-7.0), the research examines the impact of changing tropical cyclone patterns on offshore wind power generation efficiency, safety, and reliability. Bias correction techniques are applied to global climate models (GCMs) to improve the accuracy of future climate projections, resulting in more robust and representative outcomes. Hazard curves for hurricane wind speeds indicate increased wind demand under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, particularly affecting Northeastern sites. In this study, the projected 50-year return-period wind speeds increase by 8 to 27% by 2060. Under the worst-case scenario in which the turbine loses yaw control and experiences a 65° yaw misalignment with respect to incoming wind, the probability of failure remains below 10% for IEC Typhoon Class (Class T) turbines with a reference wind speed of 57 m/s. Benefit analysis highlights potential increases in power generation at northern locations such as Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey, due to the greater frequency of weak tropical storms reaching northern regions. This study also evaluates hurricane-induced failure risks for offshore wind turbines by integrating site-specific hazard curves with structural fragility analysis. Results indicate that evaluating turbines designed for current climate conditions, particularly those based on IEC Class I (50 m/s survival wind speed) and Class T (57 m/s survival wind speed) specifications, using future hazard curves leads to more than an order-of-magnitude increase in annual failure probability, whereas designs that account for future climate conditions demonstrate substantially lower failure probabilities and improved structural reliability. At the time of manuscript preparation, several manufacturers produce turbines that exceed the IEC standard, with survival wind speeds of up to 80 m/s. The failure risk of these turbines is therefore expected to be lower than that evaluated in this study. • A simulation framework evaluates both risks and power gains from tropical cyclones. • Future SSTs under SSP3-7.0 increase hurricane hazard levels for 11 U.S. offshore wind energy sites. • Mid-Atlantic and northeastern offshore wind sites may require higher turbine survival capacities under future climate conditions. • Northern sites may gain power due to increased frequency of weaker storms. • Designing towers based on current climate conditions reduces tower reliability if future hurricane hazard under SSP3-7.0 pathway is realized.