Forecasts of strong tropical cyclones improved by incorporating ocean waves at air–sea interface

Tropical cyclones, also known as typhoons or hurricanes, pose grave threats to coastal population. Advances in remote sensing and increasing computing power over recent decades have led to marked improvement in track forecasting. However, a cyclone’s destructive power depends on its intensity. Yet operational forecasts continue to severely underpredict the peak intensity of strong cyclones, while overpredict weak ones. Current forecasting models include the atmosphere-ocean coupling but ignore the sizable energy and momentum transfers from the ocean by breaking waves, and the modulation of mixed-layer depths by non-breaking surface waves. Here we demonstrate using operational data that accounting for the dynamic air-sea interface in a numerical regional model improves the forecast of tropical cyclone intensities. Probability of detection for rapid intensification in Northwest Pacific increases to 90% compared to 10- 50% from existing models. A long-awaited breakthrough in predictions of tropical cyclone intensity, especially for strong ones, becomes achievable. The dynamic air-sea interface should be accounted for in tropical cyclone forecasting, according to a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave model validated with cyclone intensification data.