A framework for assessing urban carrying capacity and its impact on water and sanitation service delivery in a hill city.

UNLABELLED: In March 2021, the National Green Tribunal of India (NGT), directed states to assess the carrying capacities of Indian hill cities to balance tourism and ecological sustainability. This mandate was the first stepping stone to restrict unplanned development and regulate tourist influx that can be sustained by the cities. Nainital, a major tourist destination in Uttarakhand, faces immense pressure on its urban infrastructure and service delivery, especially in the context of water and sanitation, due to the rising tourist influx. However, India lacks a national-level framework for assessing and managing the carrying capacity of the urban environment. This study, conducted by National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA), develops a comprehensive framework for assessing carrying capacity by using key indicators, correction factor-based calculations, and temporal analysis. A mixed-method approach, including a systematic literature review, key informant interviews (KIIs), and focus group discussions (FGDs), was employed. According to the URDPFI Guidelines, while the city could theoretically accommodate 8,34,184 persons per day based on physical carrying capacity, the number reduced to 149,230 based on real carrying capacity, while the effective carrying capacity is limited to approximately 8,422 due to resource and service delivery constraints. The research offers policymakers a framework for sustainable water and sanitation management, aiding urban planning in ecologically sensitive areas. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-02959-7.