Using numerical simulations to assess the hygrothermal influence on the degradation of historic masonry under climate warming

Abstract While climate change has been extensively studied in recent decades, the specific impact on cultural heritage degradation remains insufficiently explored. Environmental factors such as rainfall, direct radiation, temperature, and humidity play a crucial role in material deterioration. Therefore, characterizing the microclimatic conditions of heritage zones and understanding how urban morphology influences these environmental parameters are essential steps toward developing effective resilience and conservation strategies. In this context, the present study proposes an approach for numerical simulations on WUFI 2D ® to assess the effects of climatic warming on heritage degradation and rising damp analysis. The numerical analysis investigates capillary moisture rise and thermally induced stress distributions under projected temperature variations over one year. The findings demonstrate how thickness and boundary conditions are significantly influenced by local microclimates, revealing that increasing ambient temperatures can exacerbate moisture ingress and stress accumulation in historic materials.