Jieqiong Wang, Shiqi Liu, Yingying Li, Aimin Shi, Yunchun Li, Ding Yang, Zhonghua Wei
The pyrophilous beetle Melanophila acuminata is a decomposer of freshly burned wood, playing a critical role in nutrient cycling within forest ecosystems. To investigate the impact of climate change on the global distribution of M. acuminata, this study employed MaxEnt modeling in conjunction with 22 environmental variables under current and future conditions (2050s and 2070s) to conduct a comparative analysis of its suitable habitats. After rational screening, a total of 795 global occurrence records and 10 selected key environmental variables were incorporated into the MaxEnt model, which demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy (AUC ≥ 0.919). The results indicate that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) are the primary factors limiting the distribution of M. acuminata. Under current climate conditions, its high-suitability areas are concentrated in Northern Europe and the border region between the United States and Canada. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) in the 2070s, the high-suitability area is projected to contract by nearly 36%, with the centroid shifting northwestward to higher elevation and an increase in habitat fragmentation. This projected contraction and fragmentation of suitable habitats may pose particular challenges for M. acuminata, given its known reliance on habitat connectivity for locating fire sites via its specialized infrared sensory system (Schmitz and Bousack 2012). However, direct validation of this mechanistic link requires further empirical investigation. Based on the predicted suitable habitats of M. acuminata in 2050s and 2070s, future conservation efforts should focus on high-suitability areas in Northern Europe and Canada.