Modelling the potential distribution and niche shift of Solenopsis invicta Buren under climate change and invasion process

As one of the most destructive and aggressive exotic harmful species, Solenopsis invicta Buren has spread rapidly in China, posing serious threats to biodiversity as well as human production and life. To formulate effective prevention and control measures, we first compared the bioclimatic variables of S. invicta between China and the USA. Subsequently, we employed the MaxEnt model and the “ecospat” package to predict the potential distribution and niche shift of S. invicta . The similar average annual temperature and annual precipitation between China and the USA serve as crucial ecological and environmental foundations for the successful invasion of S. invicta . Under the current climate, S. invicta is primarily distributed in the eastern and southern coastal regions of China and the USA. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area for S. invicta is projected to continue increasing in China, while it is expected to decrease in the USA. Mean diurnal range (Bio2), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and other climatic factors exhibited vital‌ niche differentiation. The niche of S. invicta has significant shifted in both climatic and geographic spaces, while maintaining niche conservatism during the invasion process. S. invicta can effectively adapt to new habitats through niche shifts during the invasion process. It is not advisable to directly apply the prediction experiences and threshold values from the United States to guide the prevention and control of S. invicta in China in the future. Overall, the analysis provided a scientific basis for the government and local organizations to prevent and control S. invicta .