Blinded Evaluation of Oceanic Sound Source Locations via Sequential Bound Estimation

A non-linear, non-Bayesian method called sequential bound estimation (SBE) derived 100% confidence intervals of location (CIL) for 219 explosions in the ocean from measurements of their time differences of arrivals among five widely-spaced time-unsynchronized receivers on the ocean bottom. The explosion's locations were measured with the global positioning system. A blind evaluation revealed all 219 explosions were within their CIL. The probability this could happen by chance is $4 \times 10^{-116}$. The explosions were detonated in shallow water on the eastern continental shelf of the U.S. over the so-called New England Mud Patch.