What Do Hallucinations Reveal About Multimodal Reasoning? Diagnosing Visual Grounding Failures via Contrastive Decoding Probes

When strong multimodal models are widely available, progress requires new scientific methodologies beyond benchmark scores---using models as instruments for understanding behavior. We address this by asking: can we use large vision-language models (LVLMs) as experimental instruments for studying their own failure dynamics? Focusing on visual hallucination, we introduce SAFE, a training-free decoding framework that contrasts visually-grounded and vision-ablated generation paths to produce a token-level contrastive grounding score that identifies when the model favors linguistic priors over visual evidence. This signal serves dual roles: as a practical proxy for detecting visually-ungrounded tokens, and as the basis for decoding-time penalties. Our analysis yields three empirical observations: visual dependency decays over generation, hallucinations co-occur in temporal clusters, and early intervention reduces clustering without substantially degrading fluency. On MMHalBench, SAFE substantially outperforms all compared baselines; results elsewhere are more mixed. We argue that designing contrastive probes exemplifies a broader mission: using models as instruments for scientific understanding. Code: https://github.com/zhaozhipeng1997/SAFE_public.