Game-Theoretic Drone Swarm Defense: A Case Study in Applied Differential Game Theory

This technical report is a study of the use of differential game (DG) theory to solve the target-assignment and midcourse guidance problems of drone swarms tasked with intercepting opposing swarms in defense of high-value assets. The game-theoretic tactics---which treat the intruder swarm as a rational agent and seek a Nash equilibrium between defenders and intruders---are compared against baseline tactics that model the defense problem as a unilateral optimization of the defenders' maneuvers. Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian analysis show that the game-theoretic approach has a higher probability of successfully intercepting all intruders than the baseline techniques. This improvement in successful defense probability is most pronounced when the intruder swarm is capable of evasive maneuvers: relative to baseline optimization tactics, differential-game tactics increase estimated defense success from 94.6% to 96.8%, closing approximately 41% of the remaining gap to perfect defense. To add statistical credibility to this result, a paired-trial Bayesian analysis assigns a 99.9% posterior probability that differential-game tactics have a higher probability of successful asset defense than baseline tactics in this scenario.