An Exact Tail Condition for the Largest Error in Estimating a Rank-One Direction

We consider a rectangular random matrix formed by adding a rank-one term to a matrix with independent entries. The direction on the left side of that term is estimated by the leading left singular vector, and the error is multiplied by the square of the size of the added term. For entries with mean zero and variance one, we identify the exact tail condition for the following statement to hold for every deterministic sequence of directions: the largest error over all sizes of the added term converges to the same fixed value determined by the limiting ratio of rows to columns. This condition (weaker than the existence of fourth moments) requires that the tail probability, multiplied by the fourth power of the threshold, to tend to zero. If it fails, convergence to this value already fails when both directions are coordinate vectors, even at a size fixed before the matrix is drawn. For regularly varying tails of order between two and four, the largest error tends to infinity.