Burden of Diabetes and Temporal Trends in Clinic Attendance at a Sub-Urban Primary Diabetes Centre in South West Nigeria: A Five-Year Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is an increasing public health burden in sub-Saharan Africa, yet longitudinal primary care trends remain underreported. This study assessed the burden of DM and temporal trends in clinic attendance at the Talabi Diabetes Centre (TDC) in Isara-Remo, Ogun State, from 2021 to 2025. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective review of 4,475 patients managed between 2021 and 2025 was conducted. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, clinical diagnoses, and service utilisation were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, Cochran-Armitage trend analysis, and multinomial logistic regression. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS: The studied mean age was 57.4 ± 9.8 years, with 80.0% aged ≥50 years and 67.5% female. DM accounted for 61.5% of cases, hypertension 18.7%, and other conditions 19.8%. Most patients (76.3%) were overweight or obese. Annual clinic attendance fluctuated significantly (χ2= 68.07, p < 0.0001), rising from 948 in 2021 to 1,026 in 2025 with a mid-period decline. New registrations (13.6% of attendees) decreased significantly over time (Z = -2.41, p = 0.016). DM showed a significant declining trend in clinic burden, peaking at 69.5% in 2023 and falling to 54.4% in 2025 (p < 0.001). DM-specific new attendances also declined (p = 0.006), while hypertension remained stable and other conditions increased. Female sex, older age (≥60 years), and obesity were strongly associated with higher odds of DM and comorbidity (OR up to 8.10). CONCLUSION: DM remains the leading cause of clinic attendance, though its proportional burden is declining alongside rising non-diabetic conditions. Ageing, female sex, and obesity are key determinants of disease burden. These findings highlight the need for strengthened integrated chronic disease management in primary care settings.