Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Catchment Hydrology: A Systematic Review of SWAT-Based Evidence in Africa

Change in land use and land cover (LULC) is one of the most consequential drivers of catchment hydrological change in Africa, where rapid agricultural expansion, deforestation, and urbanisation combine with high rainfall variability, sparse hydro-meteorological monitoring, and heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and surface water. This review synthesises 21 model-based, peer reviewed studies (2011–2025) that used SWAT or related hydrological models to quantify LULC driven hydrological change across East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania), West Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, Burkina Faso), Southern Africa (Malawi), Central Africa (the Democratic Republic of the Congo), and North Africa (Morocco). Drawing on catchments including the Upper Blue Nile and Awash basins, the White Volta and Vea catchments, the Kaduna watershed, the Migori and Lake Victoria basin, the Wami–Ruvu basin, the Shire basin, the Lake Kivu basin, and the Ouergha catchment, the evidence consistently shows increased surface runoff, peak flows, and sediment load, alongside reduced baseflow and dry-season flow persistence, regardless of climatic zone. The review also examines the pronounced concentration of evidence in the Ethiopian highlands relative to other sub-regions, the methodological strategies used to address sparse hydro meteorological data (satellite-derived precipitation, SWAT-CUP/SUFI-2 calibration, remote sensing-based LULC classification), and the implications for catchment management, dam and reservoir sedimentation, and water security planning. While the direction of hydrological impacts from LULC change is highly consistent across African catchments, the magnitude is basin specific, and substantially more geographically distributed primary research, particularly in West, Central, Southern, and North Africa, is needed to support climate-resilient, evidence-based catchment management across the continent.