D. Fraemke, A. Miller, P. Koellinger, R. Hertwig, D. Richter, S. Zinn, C. Kandler, A. J. Forstner, B. Moenkediek, M. Diewald, A. Teumer, S. E. Baumeister, H. Voelzke, U. Voelker, H. J. Grabe, L. Bertram, U. Lindenberger, J. Drewelies, S. Kuehn, I. Demuth, D. Gerstorf, A. Okbay, P. Biroli, N. Fuchs-Schuendeln, K. P. Harden, A. Abdellaoui, M. Malanchini, E. M. Tucker-Drob, L. Raffington
Abrupt social and political transformations in twentieth-century Germany may have shifted how polygenic indices relate to educational outcomes across birth cohorts. Following a prespecified analysis plan, we harmonized genomic, educational, and regional data from four German studies, comprising 13,049 individuals born between 1918 and 1995. Polygenic index associations with educational attainment were robust and strengthened modestly across more recent birth cohorts, with no detectable difference between East and West Germany. Associations with intergenerational educational mobility showed no evidence of such strengthening but were stronger in the East than in the West. Polygenic indices were less predictive of educational attainment and educational mobility for women than for men, with no evidence of regional variation. We discuss the methodological limitations of polygenic indices for examining gene-environment interactions, and emphasize that evaluating whether these differences represent progress towards equal educational opportunity requires a normative framework that social science genetics alone cannot supply.