Trends and Heterogeneity in Having a Usual Source of Care Among U.S. Children: Evidence from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2015-2024

Abstract Background: Having a usual source of care (USC) supports continuity and access to health services. Recent national trends among U.S. children have not been comprehensively characterized. We examined changes in USC prevalence, subgroup heterogeneity, and reported reasons for not having a USC using the 2015-2024 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Methods: We analyzed the 2015-2024 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Full-Year Consolidated Data. Annual prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 0 to 17 years overall and by sex, age group, race and ethnicity, and insurance status. The reported reasons for not having a USC were grouped to low perceived need, preference or self-management, access or continuity barrier, and other reasons. The distribution of grouped reasons was analyzed for each study year. Temporal differences in yearly estimates were evaluated using two-sample z-tests between 2015 and 2019 and between 2015 and 2024, and average annual changes were estimated using generalized linear regression. Results: Overall USC prevalence declined from 92.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.9%, 93.8%) in 2015 to 87.2% (95% CI, 85.1%, 89.2%) in 2024. The estimated average annual change was -0.8 percentage points (95% CI, -1.0 to -0.6). Declines were observed across most subgroups and were largest among uninsured children, whose prevalence decreased from 78.4% to 53.6%. Low perceived need remained the most common reported reason for not having a USC, while the proportion reporting access or continuity barriers decreased and the proportion classified as other reasons increased. Conclusions: Estimates based on the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey indicated a substantial decline in the prevalence of having a USC among U.S. children, with notable heterogeneity by insurance status and race and ethnicity. Further research is needed to determine whether the decline reflects changing access, organization and use of pediatric care, survey measurement, or a combination of these factors.