M. Tugrul, M. Kara
Radiation-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) drive cellular mortality, mutagenesis, and severe evolutionary bottlenecks. While classical phenomenological models, such as the Linear-Quadratic (LQ) framework, reliably predict macroscopic population survival, they obscure the intrinsic single-cell stochasticity that governs critical rare events like tumor recurrence or the emergence of radioresistant persisters. To bridge this divide, we develop a mathematically exact stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework that models continuous DSB induction and repair as a Feller square-root process. By deriving exact closed-form expressions for the foci moments, we establish a highly efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) pipeline that circumvents computationally exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations, allowing the direct extraction of deterministic repair velocities and intrinsic molecular noise from empirical single-cell $\gamma$-H2AX data. Integrating this kinetic model with a cumulative damage hazard via the Feynman-Kac formalism, our framework seamlessly recovers the classic macroscopic LQ survival topology from microscopic first principles. Furthermore, systematic sensitivity analysis uncovers a fundamental evolutionary duality: while initial physical damage operates additively, ultimate cellular fate is driven by a nonlinear survival response governed by the trade-off between the damage hazard rate and intrinsic molecular noise strength. Crucially, we demonstrate that this molecular noise inherently enhances population survival. Governed by Jensen's inequality, stochastic variance acts as a non-genetic bet-hedging mechanism that buffers the population by favoring cells with transiently low damage loads. Ultimately, this exact stochastic framework bridges microscopic biophysics and macroscopic demographics, offering deep mechanistic insights into the evolutionary roots of radioresistance.