Quantifying Academic Risk Factors for Student Depression Using WHO Frameworks: Odds Ratios, SHAP Explainability, and Tipping Point Analysis

Depression has become a serious concern for students worldwide. Aligned with the WHO Helping Adolescents Thrive (HAT) Guidelines and the Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) model, this study isolates five academically relevant factors--academic pressure, work/study hours, study satisfaction, sleep duration, and financial stress--from a dataset of 27,880 university students in India and quantifies their associations with depression. Unlike prior work that maximises classification accuracy, this study prioritises interpretability: logistic regression provides odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals, Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost rank predictors by feature importance, and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values extend the analysis to individual-level risk explanation. SMOTE oversampling was applied exclusively to the training set, and performance was evaluated on the original imbalanced test set (n = 5,576). Both ensemble models achieve approximately 77-78% accuracy and an AUC of 0.845, confirmed by 5-fold pipeline cross-validation (CV AUC [~] 0.843). Academic pressure is the dominant risk factor (OR = 2.271; RF importance = 0.481; mean |SHAP| = 0.174), while study satisfaction (OR = 0.796) and sleep duration (OR = 0.835) are protective. The RF model yields a tipping point at academic pressure > 4.02, and interaction plots reveal how depression risk is amplified by low sleep, high financial stress, and extended study hours. These findings provide data-driven thresholds aligned with WHO-endorsed modifiable determinants to support early detection and institutional counselling.