Bashir Saleh Bornoma, Michael Raphael Onenyi, Sulaiman Abubakar Muhammad
Nigeria occupies a structurally paradoxical position in the global oil system: it is Africa's largest crude oil exporter yet has historically imported nearly all of its refined petroleum products, meaning that a rise in global oil prices generates a simultaneous fiscal windfall and a domestic cost shock. This background makes Nigeria uniquely vulnerable to geopolitically driven oil price surges, a vulnerability that was sharply intensified by the 2023 removal of the fuel subsidy, the floatation of the naira, and the 2026 Iran-Israel-US war, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel. The purpose of this study is to identify theoretical assumptions that misrepresent Nigeria's dual-exposure profile, to develop the Dual-Exposure Transmission Framework (DETF), to derive five testable research hypotheses, and to generate evidence-based policy recommendations. The study addressed four research questions and assumed five null research hypotheses. The study employed a structured conceptual synthesis design, with articles from peer-reviewed and authoritative institutional literature on geopolitical risk, oil price transmission, Dutch Disease, and institutional economics in oil-dependent economies. A purposive criterion-based sampling technique was applied to select 31 verified sources spanning 1982–2026. Articles were collected through a structured literature synthesis protocol applied to confirmed, DOI-verifiable publications. Thematic synthesis and framework development were used as methods of data analysis. Findings reveal that the dominant transmission channel from geopolitical oil shocks to Nigerian inflation is the exchange rate rather than the oil price directly, that positive oil price shocks do not straightforwardly benefit Nigeria due to the simultaneous cost-push effect, and that institutional quality and refining capacity are significant but partial moderators of transmission intensity. It is recommended that Nigeria establish a petroleum price stabilisation fund, develop rules-based exchange rate intervention protocols, institutionalise counter-cyclical fiscal rules, and negotiate geopolitical-stress-resilient crude feedstock supply agreements for the Dangote Refinery.