Economic Security of Ukraine Under War: A Foreign Trade Perspective

This study investigates the impact of the ongoing war on Ukraine’s foreign trade activities, focusing on changes in trade dynamics, structural potential, and economic forecasting. The war has significantly disrupted Ukraine’s integration into the global economy, causing sharp declines in export volumes, an increased trade deficit, and notable shifts in the commodity and geographic structure of trade. Agricultural products remain the backbone of exports, while metallurgical and industrial exports have declined due to infrastructural damage and logistical barriers. Imports continue to be dominated by mineral fuels and machinery essential for reconstruction and defense needs. Using econometric modeling based on data from 2004 to 2024, the study reveals a statistically significant negative impact of imports on GDP growth, contrasted with a positive but less statistically certain impact of exports. Polynomial regression forecasting for 2025-2027 indicates a gradual recovery in both trade turnover and GDP, contingent on managing import dependence and expanding export capacity. The findings highlight strategic challenges such as export diversification, import substitution, and the need for active state support and international cooperation to enhance Ukraine’s economic security. This paper contributes empirical evidence for policy-making aimed at reinforcing Ukraine’s economic resilience, strengthening economic security, and fostering deeper integration with European, G7, and Global South markets in the face of ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.