Linking fertility, female employment, and development to the sustainable development goals: Evidence from panel data

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between socioeconomic indicators and fertility, with a particular focus on how female labor force participation, income, education, and human development interact with demographic trends. Maternal and child health indicators, as outlined within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), serve as the conceptual foundation for this research. The analysis covers 15 countries, selected according to their development levels, using panel data from 2000 to 2020. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger causality test was applied to examine the direction of causality between variables, including female labor force participation (LAB), gross domestic product (GDP), education (EDU), fertility (FRT), and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from HDI to FRT and from LAB to HDI. These findings suggest that human development plays an important role in shaping fertility dynamics, while female labor force participation contributes to broader human development outcomes. The relationship between demographic indicators and development appears to be multidimensional and influenced by socioeconomic and policy contexts. The findings highlight the need for policies that enhance women’s working conditions, expand their access to education, and strengthen their presence in economic life. Such measures are essential for achieving sustainable development outcomes and advancing gender equality. This study provides empirical evidence on the directional causal links between human development, labor participation, and fertility using a cross-country panel approach.