Trade performance of Bangladesh during COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical study using CGE model

The purpose of the study is to analyze the trade performance of Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study identifies the effects of private consumption demand shocks and trade disruptions caused by higher trade costs due to the pandemic on Bangladesh's export and import in different sectors. It also compares the analysis results with actual data. Based on previous literature, this study assumes low, medium, and high shocks and examines their effects on trade in Bangladesh. The study applies the CGE model using GTAP to measure the effects of these shocks on trade and output, comparing actual trade data with CGE-simulated results. The findings suggest that both demand shocks and trade disruptions significantly impact Bangladesh's export, import, and domestic output during the pandemic. It is also evident that higher levels of shocks lead to greater impacts on trade and output. The CGE model further analyzes the combined effects of both shocks on Bangladesh's trade performance. Results indicate that the combined effects are higher than their individual effects across all sectors. The actual export and import data cross-validate the CGE analysis results, providing mixed findings regarding the trade performance of various sectors during the pandemic.