Assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of PM2.5 and its health and economic effects in Central China based on spatial statistics and BenMAP.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a major environmental issue affecting regional air quality, public health, and the sustainability of socioeconomic development. Central China, located in the transitional zone of central-eastern China, functions as both an emission source area and a transport corridor for air pollutants. However, integrated studies on the spatiotemporal evolution of PM2.5 and its associated health and economic effects in this region remain limited. Based on ground monitoring data and the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset, this study combined spatial statistical methods, a centroid migration model, and the BenMAP health impact assessment model to systematically investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PM2.5 pollution in Central China during 2017-2024, with Henan Province selected as the key region for assessing health and economic effects during 2017-2023. The results showed that PM2.5 concentrations in Central China exhibited clear seasonal variability, with higher levels in winter and spring and lower levels in summer and autumn. Spatially, PM2.5 displayed a pattern of lower concentrations in the west and higher concentrations in the east, and lower concentrations in the south and higher concentrations in the north, with Henan Province showing substantially higher pollution levels and a broader extent of high-value areas than Hubei and Hunan Provinces. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant clustering of PM2.5 concentrations, with high-value clusters mainly distributed in Henan Province and around Wuhan and Changsha. Annual global Moran's I values ranged from 0.5237 to 0.7376, with all corresponding p-values below 0.001, indicating significant positive spatial autocorrelation. During the study period, the PM2.5 concentration centroid remained near central Hubei, and interannual displacements ranged from 2.86 to 24.37 km. Most displacements did not exceed the noise thresholds, and the current results do not support a persistent and robust southwestward migration. The assessment of health and economic effects further showed that premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure from all causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases in Henan Province generally declined with fluctuations, although a slight rebound was observed in the later stage of the study period. As PM2.5 concentrations decreased, the associated health burden and economic losses were both alleviated; however, due to the continued increase in the value of a statistical life, the growth in economic benefits from pollution control was less pronounced than the improvement in health benefits. These findings provide scientific support for precision air pollution control, health risk prevention in key provinces, and the formulation of differentiated emission reduction policies in Central China.