United States

The 2026 Article IV Consultation with United States discusses that gross domestic product growth reached 2 percent in 2025 despite major policy shifts and a Q4 government shutdown, supported by strong productivity. Inflation remained broadly flat as tariff-driven increases in goods prices offset moderating services inflation, while the fiscal deficit narrowed slightly despite still-elevated public debt and current account deficits. Growth is projected to strengthen to 2.4 percent in 2026, supported by resilient demand, with easing tariff effects and lower oil prices expected to bring core personal consumption expenditures inflation back to 2 percent by early 2027. Labor market conditions are softening gradually, with slower employment growth but unemployment likely to remain near 4 percent. Near-term risks to growth and unemployment are broadly balanced, although rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation. Financial sector priorities include full implementation of Basel III standards, consistent regulation of large banks, stronger supervisory practices, and reassessment of deposit insurance coverage and liquidity requirements. While progress on crypto-asset regulation is welcome, further efforts are needed to address emerging financial stability and integrity risks.;