Urban Heat Island Dynamics and Urban Expansion in Baghdad: A Spatiotemporal Remote Sensing Analysis (2003–2023)

The study is related to the Urban Heat Island phenomenon, one of the most important issues that is closely linked to major climate variables. The independent variables used to perform the analysis included urbanization variables and changes in vegetation cover, as well as other factors. The research results indicate a clear, continuous increase in urban land area. In 2003, it was 1251.11 km2, equivalent to 28.4%, reaching 1548.12 km2, or 35.14% in 2023. This increase is approximately 297 km2. As such, the increase is significant, and it significantly affects environmental pollution when combined with the enhanced Land Surface Temperature due to increased anthropogenic heat emissions, cars, and other uses. High temperatures were concentrated in urban, densely populated, and industrially active areas compared to surrounding areas. There is also a rise in temperatures relative to arid (semi-desert) regions, compared with agricultural areas. The correlation with temperatures was positive, when the coefficient of correlation between Urban Build-up Index Normalized Difference Built-up Index and Vegetation Index Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is approximately 0.807, while there is a strong relationship between Normalized Difference Built-up Index and Land Surface Temperature of about 0.837. In 2023, a clear urban heat island pattern is observed in Baghdad due to decrease vegetation significantly associated with an increase in built-up areas during the period from 2003 to 2023.